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How to select a candidate to vote for as president

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Here is a guide to presidential candidates and the platform matrix.

“Who are you voting for?” Friends and relatives ask me that question whenever they find out that I interviewed seven presidential candidates. I tell them that I am not supporting a candidate yet but I already have a short list based on a selection criteria. I rattle off three candidates: Manny Villar, Dick Gordon, and Nick Perlas, in that order.  A few eyebrows are raised as I mention an unpopular choice among the AB market.   But see, each one of us determines a criteria which can be classfied as WANTS and MUSTS. I decided to make my short list a bit more quantifiable by creating a score card and a set of criteria based on personal knowledge, information gathered from interviews, forums, and other research materials on the candidate’s website.

 

I discovered two bloggers who developed methods to evaluate and select a candidate to vote for as president of the Philippines in May 10, 2010. BenK used a sensible assessment method to choose a candidate which is similar to the Kepner-Tregnoe Matrix explained by BongV.  I decided to use the latter. I downloaded the voting matrix,  an application of Kepner-Tregoe methodology in selecting a candidate for the 2010 Philippine Presidential elections.

The Kepner-Tregnoe appealed to me more since it forced me to take stock, to review the candidates, to find out more information, to do research, to verify and validate information about the candidates:

1 .  what they want to do;
2 . what they have already done;
3.  what they have accomplished; and
4.  what they want to accomplish.

and score accordingly.

 

What is the Kepner-Tregnoe methodology?

Kepner-Tregoe decision making is a structured methodology for gathering information and prioritizing and evaluating it. It was developed by Charles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe in the 1960s. This is a rational model that is well respected in business management circles. An important aspect of Kepner-Tregoe decision making is the assessment and prioritizing of risk.

So the idea is not to find a perfect solution but rather the best possible choice, based on actually achieving the outcome with minimal negative consequences. It is marketed as a way to make unbiased decisions in that it is said to limit conscious and unconscious biases that draw attention away from the outcome.


How did I fill in the voting matrix analysis ?

(Download the voting matrix excel file here)

1. I  followed  BongV’s mandatory requirement list which meant that any candidate must meet these criteria without exception in order to be considered for a position.

2.  I changed the desirable qualities based on What I look for in a president. The desirable qualities meant that once the candidate has met the Mandatory Objectives then he/she can be viewed and  rated as to how well he/she meets the Desirable Objectives, which have been prioritized on a 1-10 (Low-High) scale.

One of my top requirements was the Millenium Development Goals on primary education and maternal health and the ability to be both servant and inspiring leader.  It is so easy for candidates to lay out wonderful plans but my basis was also a previous track record to support this plan.

3.  I selected only seven candidates since I didn’t have adequate data for the other three.

4.  In computing the final score, the weighted score is the product of a Desired Criteria’s weight and the raw score that I indicated.

When all the Desired Criteria are tallied, I  compared the total points of each candidate.  The candidate who meets all the MUST criteria and has the highest score is the logical choice.


Lo and behold. The results surprised me! Based on the Kepner-Tregnoe Matrix, the top choices are

 

voting-matrix

  • Dick Gordon- 750
  • Manny Villar - 717
  • Gibo Teodoro- 619

Unfortunately, no one got a perfect score on the mandatory requirement.

Based on BenK’s assessment method, here are his results

Manny Villar – 31: I’m surprised that he scores as well as he does, because if I was doing this just based on personal impressions, I would write him off as a contemptible pig. A good example of why a rational, information-based process is better. Even so, I’m kind of glad he only finishes third on this list.

Gibo Teodoro – 32: A firm second choice in almost every respect, but really calls down suspicion on his ability to select an effective team with his choice of that yahoo Manzano.

Dick Gordon – 39: A clear winner, even without a proper platform (which I would still like to see, by the way – let’s do the whole job right, Dick, please). He has the qualifications, the experience, and the record of achievement to back them up. He’s already started to build a strong team by joining up with Bayani, and he has sensible ideas for what to do with this mess of a country once elected. If there’s any hope of progress for the
Philippines to come out of the 2010 elections, it lies with Dick Gordon.


As you can see, we both came up with the same top three candidates but with varying scores.  Gibo Teodoro was never in my short list. I think I know why.  I removed the Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA)  factor in my criteria.  I should have added that but I didn’t think it was important. Just because a candidate is politically opposed to GMA does not mean he/she is  the better candidate who is efficient and effective and able to spur the economy. I found out GMA supporters are now all over the place. Think “balimbing.”

I want to add another factor that is not quantifiable. Gut feel. I just know when he/she is the one when election day arrives. I will decide on my candidate by combining the results of  the voting matrix and gut feel.

As the weeks pass, the voting matrix may change.  News about these candidates including mudslinging and other black propaganda will be thrown at my face. I need to filter this information in the weeks to follow.

Is my assessment accurate? I believe it is accurate as of today. Will I vote for Dick Gordon today? Maybe, but I won’t tell you who I will vote on May 10, 2010 .   I don't want to appear partisan in this Blog Watch project. Some readers can't distinguish me, as the voter and me, the editor of the project. The exercise of the voting matrix is to illustrate that YOU need to base your decision on a rational informed-based process.

This is not about who I will vote for.

The present times call for a tough administrator, statesman and economic leader.  The electorate need to make good informed choices.

Have you selected a candidate to vote for as president of the Philippines ?

Here is a Guide to Presidential Candidates and their platform matrix

 

Thank you BongV for the Voting Matrix.



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Disclaimer: Comments posted here reflect our readers’ views and not the opinion of The Philippine Online Chronicles.

ganns 27 February 10, 11:20 PM
I've found Dick Gordon to be a rational choice for president. That people won't vote for a candidate other than Villar or Aquino simply because it is perceived as a wasted vote, is a rationalization I find odd, though not entirely without merit.

n_dado 28 February 10, 11:13 AM
I have heard people say they like Gordon but that he is not winnable.

so the question is now is it a vote between Aquino and Villar?
binoyz 28 February 10, 07:25 PM
it's really sad that people reason out the "winnability" of Gordon for not voting for him even though they believe in him. :(
chie 28 February 10, 07:13 AM
well...... that is very enlightening.
GabbyD 28 February 10, 08:45 AM
thanks for sharing ur thought process...

quick question on "grasp on foreign and domestic issues" -- this seems to be an important issue... after it ur dont want the next president to be unable to grasp BOTH foreign and domestic issues...

why are delos reyes, villanueva and aquino a NO?

is it coz delos reyes and villaneuva are religious? thats fine, -- if so, why is aquino a NO?
n_dado 28 February 10, 06:08 AM
it is a yes for domestic issues. it is a NO because not much discussion on foreign issues. Aquino also declined a foreign policy forum and hence I gave him a lower score.
GabbyD 28 February 10, 12:53 PM
perhaps u should separate these (foreign vs domestic) then. arguably, he didnt attend coz he had other commitments on that day. to judge that someone doesnt grasp foreign policy based on whether one attends one forum (out of many) is strange. But i grant that in all of the interviews i've seen/read, foreign policy is not asked.
n_dado 28 February 10, 05:24 PM
commitments? he didn't attend because he didn''t want forums at that time. besides I did not judge him because he did not appear in the forum. he has not talked much on foreign policies. Even nick perlas wasn't there .
GabbyD 01 March 10, 03:58 AM
well, i personally dont know why he didnt go to that specific forum. from what i can tell, he's been in lots of different fora, and others have been absent from lots of different fora.

is this a fair assessment, n_dado?

apart from the foreign policy forum, i dont think any other forum has asked about foreign policy. am i right?

people should start asking about foreign policy, i agree.
GabbyD 28 February 10, 08:51 AM
looking at the Wants part, a number of questions/comments:

1) alot of people dont want to acheive universal primary educ? wow, thats news... r u really telling me gibo is less enthused about primary educ than aquino?

if true, this is huge!

2) on maternal health, why does villar get a 9 vs aquino's 5?

3) why, on RH bill, is gordon a 9. he on record as saying as not supporting it. in fact, for gordon, population is a scapegoat for our problems -- an excuse.
____

i'm curious about why these people are ranked the way they are...
n_dado 28 February 10, 06:09 AM
based on my interviews with them, these candidates value education. It remains to be see if they actually implement it. The higher scores were due to more concrete plans the others.

Villar in my interview with him detailed more health plans over Aquino including maternal health. That question stemmed because Villar did not support RH Bill as a law but discussed in detail his health program.

Gordon in a forum says he supports it with a few tweakings
GabbyD 28 February 10, 12:48 PM
villar has more detailed health plans than Aquino?

is this from the blogwatch interview? would you know which mp3 file it is where he discusses this?

Gordon supports it with tweaks? from what i know noynoy also supports it with tweaks. in a recent forum, noynoy is the ONLY one who in principle will allow publicly funded artificial birthcontrol.

also gordon doesnt believe population is a big deal. to quote from a recent news article:
"On the other hand, the Bagumbayan candidate said a big population is not a problem and that the government should not use the country’s population growth as an excuse for its failure to deliver services to the people.

Citing India and China as examples, Gordon said the two countries have big populations that did not hinder them from becoming fast-developing nations."

i got that from here:
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/183707/gordon-on-rh-bill-i-am-not-afraid-of-the-church
n_dado 28 February 10, 01:35 PM
Villar discussed his health plans in our blogwatch interview dated December 17, 2009

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/3176474

When he gave a definite NO answer on Reproductive Health bills, I asked him the questions on maternal health , View at 1:50 of the recorded video. He said health is so neglected taking 1.3% of national budget.

He wants to double health budget, He has seen how hard it is for the poor to get health care. His own brother died..he discusses more in our interview about free medical attention during life and death situation. FREE medication for life and death and he claims it is not a empty election promise.

at 2:13- he adds Health care is his biggest program as it affects a life of people. He also talks about infant deaths. He has a program. While he is against RH bill, he respects women rights.

Dick Gordon supports the RH Bill, but says it still can be fine tuned. People should be given the freedom to choose the right methods for contraception, but not abortion. Population he said should not be an excuse for the non-development of a country. He stressed on the need for an educated population and great leadership, giving China, Brazil and India as good examples of countries with a huge population but with a rising economy.

Noynoy Aquino, though formerly fully supporting the RH Bill wanted to make it clear that he was not a co-author of the Bill. In fact, he has not authored any bill at all. He used to strongly support the Bill, making contraceptives readily available in government health centers. Couples should be given a free choice on what family planning method to use based on their beliefs and conscience, and that the Catholic Church should not intervene with government programs. But now he supports an amendment of the pending Bill, if it sees light in the next Congress. He advocates “responsible parenthood”—as a parent, one should be responsible to feed the child, raise him, provide him with a home and send him to school. Educational campaigns will be set in place as a solution to the growing population problem.
GabbyD 01 March 10, 04:05 AM
thanks!

regarding empty promises, if villar promises to double the healthcare outlay, he also has to show the following so the promises arent empty:

1) other spending where he'll cut back
2) if he wont lower expenditures, then he'll have to raise taxes

i guess he's already said that he'll raise taxes, so next, he has to tell us, what kind of taxes he will raise.

if he wont do that, THEN its empty promises. after all, its easy to say, spend more here, more there, right? the hard part is paying for it...

re RHbill
actually, i'd agree with your characterisation above. it looks like they are largely the same.

so why is Gordon a 9 and everybody else is ZERO?
GabbyD 01 March 10, 04:32 AM
i just listened to that part, its Manny Villar 12, on the player on the right.

basically, he wants to double spending, and he has a detailed proposal, presumably on what programs to spend on.

unfortunately, he didnt share much of it, except for "hire more nurses in poor hospitals" which, really, means "spend more money" in poor hospitals.

all of that is great -- but he needs to share how this will be funded, and which other programs will get cut.
GabbyD 28 February 10, 12:56 PM
regarding noynoy, isnt there a blogwatch interview with him too? he's not on the list on the right
n_dado 28 February 10, 05:31 PM
the interview is at http://youtube.com/blogwatchdotph/

his podcast http://blogwatch2.podOmatic.com/entry/2010-02-22T23_59_23-08_00
Marvin Beduya 28 February 10, 11:36 AM
I trained on KT from 1980 and have used it since then. In the original KT, The WANTS is secondary to the MUSTS and is only used as tiebreaker (though you emphasized the Wants above in your paper).

The MUSTS, by definition in KT, are a go-no go screen, i.e nobody is screened for WANTS if he does not pass MUSTS. Unfortunately, nobody among the candidates passed this screen.

Also, the MUSTS above were designed as qualitative instead of quantitative so, as all thinking FIlipinos must conclude, nobody is really qualified to be President based on the MUST g0-no go screen of the method above.

Of course, that is not a tenable position. So one must take the next best step, i.e. try to establish a factor weight for each MUST or force one or two of them to be non-negotiable go-no go screens.

For example, if one decides that corruption is a no-go screen, then only de los Reyes, Perlas, Aquino and Villanueva pass to the Wants scoring.

If one wishes to deal with the Devil a bit, then weights can be assigned but then that is not KT.
Marvin Beduya 28 February 10, 11:46 AM
What I do not like about using KT in elections (though I have used it in business situations where a clear metric can be the bar), is that it gives the appearance of rationality when, in the choice of factors, weights and ratings a lot of subjectivity is embeddded. Briefly, asking the wrong question will give the wrong answer.

There are processes that are used statistically to initialize, pre-test, reduce (factor analysis) and prioritize (conjoint analysis or QFD-style techniques) the factors, weights and ratings to make objective ( as Gabby D wondered on above). Another approach is Delphi.

So I guess, a disclaimer is in order, i.e. the factors, weights and ratings are the analysts own. And the caveat, "ask the right questions or design the right factors, weights and rating scale to get the right answer.
n_dado 28 February 10, 05:31 PM
yes it is more of an exercise but not the basis for voting. In fact I added gut feel as another factor to decide.
BongV 06 March 10, 08:33 AM
What I do not like about using KT in elections (though I have used it in business situations where a clear metric can be the bar), is that it gives the appearance of rationality when, in the choice of factors, weights and ratings a lot of subjectivity is embeddded. Briefly, asking the wrong question will give the wrong answer.

Is true that asking the wrong question will give the wrong answer - for example if you change your MUST criteria to winnability, popularity, and "pedigree" - you get a different answer.

What KT does is it makes you think about what's important to you.
BenK 06 March 10, 11:42 AM
This is a good discussion, and I appreciate the reference, thank you. I'd like to add a couple of points.

Marvin Beduya brought up some valid concerns about the KT matrix, but I still think it can be a good tool, depending on how comfortable or familiar the user is with it. If Mr. Beduya's points illustrate anything, it's that no one method should be relied on for an important choice such as who to vote for. That's what I did (since this is largely just an intellectual exercise for me) -- play with three or four different methods, and see if they agree. If one particular method results in something that is wildly different than the rest, that indicates, as Mr. Beduya put it, that "the wrong questions" are being asked somewhere, and that I'd need to go back and refine my criteria.

I am skeptical of "gut feel" as a criterion, even if (or I should say, especially if) it's my own "gut feel". To me, that's only going part way -- I want to know WHY I have a particular "gut feeling". A very good example is Manny Villar, which I described in my article. I do not like Manny, and I have a very negative personal reaction to him (which is kind of ironic, because I'm heavily supporting the slate of NP candidates in our local area). But why do I have that reaction, and is there a valid basis for it? I don't know, so I have to set that aside and compare him on even terms with the rest of the candidates. Once I do that I find that on "objective" terms -- or at least terms that are as objective as they need to be for making my choice -- my "gut feel" about him is not exactly supported by the facts. So I believe it is very important not to rely on emotion without questioning it.

What I eventually arrived at in terms of "methodology" is what I believe everyone making a choice should do: learn about different methods, try them out, and develop one of their own from that new accumulated knowledge. I think your article helps that process, so good on you.
n_dado 06 March 10, 01:54 PM
my gut feel comes right after the logical assessment though not before I have weighed out the various methods. Thanks BenK for your inputs
BenK 06 March 10, 07:26 PM
Ah, I see. In that case, I really wouldn't think of it as "gut feel", since it's got quite a bit of discernment going into it. A rose by any other name, I guess.
LoloLando 06 March 10, 09:54 PM
Though you did not tell who you are voting for, calling a candidate a contemptible pig somehow digress your objectivity. You burned your midnight candle to come up with what you thought was a fair survey tool and when the result came in, it somehow broke your heart that your candidate did not medal. Please, in your next survey, just list the result and your reasons why a candidate won or loss for that matter.
n_dado 06 March 10, 11:50 PM
if you read properly, I was quoting BenK's assessment as it compared to mine.
kengs08 07 March 10, 03:21 AM
excellent analysis. I have my own reasoning/logic and Gordon came out on TOP as well !

I will do my part to my felllow filipino people and campaign for Gordon..

If we can oust a president via power of information technology, I believe we can also install one !
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