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Mark Twain once said that "[c]limate is what we expect, weather is what we get." While this remains indubitably true, Twain was most probably living in a time when things were cleaner and simpler, and perhaps less greenhouse gases were being emitted into the atmosphere. In these times, however, the Earth’s climate is getting more and more unpredictable, and once again, people are faced with something that is bigger than themselves.
But how much should a person from a third-world country worry when it comes to talk about global warming? The famous faces (one of these being Al Gore's) we see in the movies and documentaries on climate change do not look like us, and the cases being presented are usually thousands of miles away from where we live. How far from disaster are we, really?
The basics
Weather and climate are often carelessly defined. While the two are in many ways similar, they are not interchangeable.
Weather refers to atmospheric conditions over a short period of time, and includes temperature, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall, as well as daily atmospheric changes. It could be wet or dry, hot or cold, clear or cloudy. The troposphere, the lowest region of the atmosphere, is where these things happen.
Climate, on the other hand, is the general weather condition, the way the atmosphere behaves over a long period of time. It is a long-term pattern of weather in a given area and remains constant over years, decades, or longer. Extreme weather changes are also possible without climate change.
The moon also affects the Earth’s weather patterns. Its gravitational pull affects tides and ocean currents that alter the weather. Horizontal currents caused by the moon’s tidal pulls can bring warm or cold water, and the water’s temperature in turn makes the air on land hot or cold.
In the Philippines, the past months have exhibited extremes in weather conditions. One day it’s extremely hot, the next day people cannot even go outside because rains have flooded the streets. Weather has become more unpredictable than ever before, perhaps a hint that things are a little more serious than we think.
Philippine weather and global warming
Different seasons depend on the tilt of the Earth’s axis. The summer season occurs when the hemisphere is tilted towards the Sun, while winter happens when the hemisphere is tilted away from it. The Philippines, together with other countries that are near the equator, gets the same sun exposure for the whole year because the Sun strikes at the same angle. Thus, it only has two seasons: dry (December to May) and wet/rainy (June to November). Our weather is more constant, compared to countries that are farther above or below the equator.
What causes Earth's seasons? (ignitelearning)
According to PAGASA, the Philippines' mean annual temperature is 26.6o C. The coolest month is January, and the hottest is May.
The global climate has changed many times in the past decade due to human and natural causes. The human influence of the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane is one of the greatest influences on the global problem. This pushes up global temperature and therefore enhances the greenhouse gases entering Earth, making the planet warmer than usual.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, “new record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing.” A 2009 report said that the Philippines is included in the risk index (from 1990 - 2008) of 10 nations most affected by climate change. The country’s poor environmental policies as well as continuous abuses such as air pollution and deforestation are enough indication that this country contributes to global warming.
Calamities in succession
Last year, two devastating typhoons hit the country and claimed thousands of lives. Supertyphoon Ondoy (international codename: Ketsana), followed by typhoon Pepeng (international codename: Parma) are extreme weather conditions that left Filipinos worried another tragedy may hit in the future.
According to a World Bank report, the damages of the two typhoons reached an estimate of USD4.4 billion (P204.47 billion). The floods and landslides affected around 9.3 people. This number is more devastating when compared with a study saying that the annual average of casualties from 1975-2002 was 593, with property damages worth P4.578 billion.
PAGASA reported in January that 19 tropical cyclones are projected to hit the Philippine Area of Responsibility this year. Weather bureau Director Prisco Nilo told Sun.Star that the intensity of these storms will almost be the same as in 2009, but with less landfall expected. PAGASA also predicted Northern Luzon as the first area to be hit.
Based on what happened during the past two calamities, the Philippines should have a lot to worry about in terms of rescue and clean-up operations. The disaster response during Ondoy and Pepeng needs improvement, and with the Climate Change Act of 2009, Filipinos will be expecting more and better action from the government.
A study called “Crisis or opportunity: Climate change impacts and the Philippines” by Greenpeace recalled some of the most devastating tragedies that hit the country in the past years: the 1991 Ormoc flash flood that killed more than 5,000 people, the 1999 Cherry Hills tragedy that killed 58, the 2000 Payatas garbage slide that claimed more than 200 lives, and the 2001 Camiguin flash flood that killed 134. All of these were followed by more calamities, implying tragedies could happen again because of government's lack of preparation, or despite efforts at prevention.
Possible threat
Earlier this year, drought hit just when the country was trying to recover and rebuild what Ondoy and Pepeng tore down. Farmers from Luzon suffered from the dry spell that destroyed their harvest in less than a month. This means less crops in affected areas in Luzon that, after the typhoons, were already poor enough as it is.
One effect of global warming that would likely be visible in the country is the rise in sea levels due to the continued melting of the Arctic ice caps. This will happen due to the continuous increase of temperature, and in effect will be a threat to many coastal areas.
According to National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) physicist Josefino Comiso, currents from the Arctic waters travel to all the oceans in the world, including the ones surrounding the Philippines. A month's worth of rain dumped in a day (Ondoy) is not normal. A 5-mm projected sea-level rise per year only means bad news. People living in low-lying coastal areas will most likely face flooding and dangers to fisheries and wildlife.
According to a study entitled Technical Primer on Climate Change in the Philippines by the COMSTE, "Assessing the impacts of sea level rise is currently based on mapping how the coastline will be pushed back for every meter the ocean rises. Low-lying coastlines with gentle slopes will suffer greater loss of land than those with steep topography." The study also mentioned that according to a PAGASA study, a one-meter rise in 2025 could drown around 5,000-hectares and displace an estimate of 2,000 people.
"It is obvious that we need to prevent abuses of the funds to make the system more responsive," said the Aquino staff in an Inquirer.net story on climate change. Now that the country has a new administration, should we be more confident that the government will respond better to calamities?
“The danger is that global warming may become self-sustaining, if it has not done so already,” said Stephen Hawking. He, along with other personalities, are addressing the world, and based on studies and recent calamities, the reminder is not just for the first-world countries.
What happens in one country affects others. The details of this global problem are repeated so many times that it is nearly impossible to say that we have not been informed.
Photo 1: “Philippines - people around the globe challenge world leaders at the UN to Fight Climate Poverty” by Oxfam International, c/o Flickr. Some Rights Reserved.
Joanisa Kamid, 11. Makad village, Mindanao. Joanisa and her classmates have to wade across a river as part of their three-kilometer walk to school. Climate change has contributed to the river’s unpredictable flow and sometimes lethal currents. Four children have drowned on their way to school since 1986, including Joanisa’s brother Jumar. // Photo: Tom Greenwood/Oxfam GB.
Photo 2: Weather satellite picture (July 5, 2010). Courtesy of DOST/PAGASA.
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