The Philippine Online Chronicles

It is certainly less newsy to say that traditional politicians have once again dominated the recently concluded May 10 elections. In this electoral game where name recall counts, political capital almost inherently resides in familiar family names.

But to say that the Left, which is usually marginalized in political affairs, has advanced both in electoral participation and mass support – that is something new to Philippine elections.

A number of analytical pieces indicate that the national democratic (natdem) bloc (also called by some as Makabayan bloc) of the Philippine Left scored higher than other “left-wing” groups in the party-list race in terms of votes garnered. This is aside from the fact that the natdem-aligned party-list groups have grown in number over the years – from just one (Bayan Muna, 2001) to six.

According to Prof. Danilo Arao of the University of the Philippines-Diliman, the mass base of progressive party-lists or the natdem-aligned party-lists has increased by 30 percent. Arao computed this by comparing the total votes cast for these party-lists in 2007 and last May 10 elections.

Included in the progressive party-lists pointed out by Arao in his article are ACT Teachers, Anakpawis, Bayan Muna, Gabriela Women’s Party, Kabataan, and Katribu.

Source: Asian Correspondent>Philippine Fastasy

Increase in mass base by natdem-aligned party-lists could still be higher since votes for party-list groups are still partial (90.26 percent of election returns).

With a base of 2.88 million, the natdem bloc overshadows all other “leftist” groups which participated in the party-list race. It is almost three times (291 percent) larger than Akbayan, which has 986,924 votes and . More so, it is 22 times larger than Partido ng Manggagawa, which has only 130,039 votes.

According to Arao, Makabayan party-lists Gabriela Women’s Party, Bayan Muna, Anakpawis, Kabataan, and ACT Teachers are assured of one seat each. It remains to be seen whether Gabriela and Bayan Muna will have an additional seat each, depending on the final tally of total votes cast for party-lists as guaranteed by the April 2009 Supreme Court ruling.

The natdem bloc stands to gain five seats in the 15th Congress at the minimum and seven at the maximum.

Senatorial race

In the senatorial race, however, Akbayan’s Risa Hontiveros performed better than Bayan Muna Rep. Satur Ocampo and Gabriela Women’s Party Rep. Liza Maza. Hontiveros ranked 13th while Maza and Ocampo ranked 25th and 26th, respectively.

Akbayan, according to Prof. Miriam Coronel Ferrer of the University of the Philippines Political Science Department, does not belong to the natdem bloc. She notes that Akbayan and the natdem (aligned) party-list groups “locked horns in Congress on how to advance agrarian reform.”

Progressive party-lists belonging to the natdem bloc push for the Genuine Agrarian Reform Bill (GARB) while Akbayan supports the legislated Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program Extension with Reforms (CARPER).

Ferrer said Hontiveros’ social networks outside Akbayan certainly contributed. “But we can surmise that the biggest contribution came from the NoyMar constituency of about 13 million.”

“This large base not only includes the Liberal Party supporters, many of whom voted straight, but also the ordinary citizens from the public at large who were inspired by the Noynoy’s promise of change,” she said.

She added that is very unlikely that the natdem base (of about 2.88 million) voted for Risa “given the unfriendly relationship between them.”

As for Maza and Ocampo, Ferrer said that the people who wanted them in the Senate did not go much beyond the estimated natdem circle (of 2.88 million). She however noted that the natdems does constitute a bloc vote that is similar to the Iglesia ni Cristo.

Ferrer’s analysis digged deeper to look into how the natdem’s alliance with Nacionalista Party’s Sen. Manny Villar benefitted the former in terms of votes.

“Assuming only 2M of the 2.85M natdem constituency voted for Villar, the natdems delivered more for Villar than he did for them,” she said.

According to the latest count, Villar has only around 5 million votes – which means that the natdem vote comprise 40 percent of the total votes for the Nacionalista Party’s standard bearer.

Communist Party of the Philippines founder Jose Maria Sison pointed out the same observation in an interview. He said Villar benefited more from the NP-Makabayan alliance than Makabayan did.

“But by his refusal to denounce the Arroyo regime as strongly as did Aquino and Estrada, Villar prejudiced not only himself but also his Makabayan teammates. It prevented the Makabayan senatorial candidates from benefitting from the anti-Arroyo sentiment and increasing their votes beyond their basic electoral base,” said Sison, who is currently in exile in the Netherlands.

The communist leader, who is also chief political consultant of the National Democratic Front of the Philippines, also stressed the red-baiting against Makabayan senatorial candidates and party-list groups.

Smear campaign against progressive candidates, particularly Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza, in the provinces has been raised by an independent observer’s mission by foreign delegates on the May 10 elections, Inquirer.net reported.

The foreign observers pointed out in the same report that posters saying “Don’t vote for (Representative Liza) Maza and (Representative Satur) Ocampo, they are NPA” were distributed outside schools during election day.

‘Strongest and most consolidated’

Arao said that despite the political persecution, the Makabayan or natdem bloc remains a strong player in Philippine politics. “Clearly, the powers-that-be can always claim tha the progressive groups are losing the support of the people, but the statistics would show otherwise.”

Ferrer, for her part, concluded by saying that “the natdems remain the strongest and most consolidated” compared to all left-wing social movement forces, despite being led by Akbayan in rank.

She added that while the natdem’s chances of winning in the senatorial race has not changed since 1987, they have nevertheless cumulatively increased their presence at the Lower House.

Sison however clarified that the revolutionary forces are not equivalent to any electoral party, adding that gaining revolutionary strength is measured in terms of “increasing the revolutionary mass base and armed strength in the people’s war and not in terms of taking seats within the reactionary government.”

Makabayan photo by Victor Villanueva. Risa Hontiveros photo from Congress website. Some rights reserved.