Are earthquakes becoming more frequent?

The year 2010 has already seen two very high profile and devastating earthquakes – the one that struck the impoverished nation of Haiti in the Caribbean and the strong magnitude 8.8 quake that struck the commonly earthquake-ravaged nation of Chile. The short time that elapsed in between these two major quakes along with the amount of devastation and loss of life that accompanied them have made people think that earthquakes are becoming more and more common.

While it may be easy to fall into the assumption that the planet is indeed becoming more active tectonically, a table released by the United States Geological Survey seems to support the counter hypothesis. The frequency of great quakes (those with magnitude 8.0 or higher) as well as major quakes (those with magnitude 7.0 to 7.9) does not seem to have increased whatsoever after a little over four months. The frequencies are relatively in the same curve as the past ten years.

The only thing that jumps up is the number of casualties. The number of casualties for 2010 is already nearing the figure that was estimated for the 2004 Asian Tsunami that killed over two hundred thousand people in the countries of Indonesia, India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and even parts of Africa. The bulk of the casualties for 2010 is largely due to the Haiti earthquake that struck the most populated parts of the country. The estimates vary from one agency to another but the local government has figured that almost 200,000 people lost their lives during the magnitude 7.0 quake. This is a quake that most buildings in most developed countries would be able to take but unfortunately, Haiti is anything but a developed country. The nation has gone through various corrupt regimes and terrible hurricanes in the past. The building code is virtually nonexistent, making the nation very vulnerable to a major quake.

If the statistics are correct, the earthquake would have wiped out over two percent of the nation’s total population. The injured were also estimated to have reached the 300,000 mark. For the past 10 years, the number of frequency of major earthquakes has ranged from nine to 19. For 2010, the figure is at five; meaning it can even end up much lower than the decade-high figure by extrapolation. Over the last ten years, there have been years that have seen zero to four great earthquakes. In fact, in 2008, no great earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher were recorded!

For the most part it’s just an unfortunate game of chance. Earthquakes happen hundreds of times a day and they range from different magnitudes. Since most of the Earth is covered by water, the risk of having damage to human structures and the loss of human life is relatively low. Even if the quake ends up striking land, the chances of it happening near places where large concentrations of human settlements can be found is quite low. In an uncanny turn of events however, it seems like the human race has chosen some tectonically-unsavory places for habitations. Many cities were founded before the advantages of modern geology and plate tectonics were discovered. There are many cities in the world that lie next to major fault lines and borders of tectonic plates. The San Andreas Fault in California, for example, has always been of interest to leading geologists due to the number of major cities situated along the entire stretch. Movements in this fault line have caused devastating quakes in San Francisco and Los Angeles in the past century.

The statistics and geological data seem to point to the fact that everything seems to be normal in terms of frequency – it’s just that the quakes have been happening in densely populated areas as opposed to uninhabited wastelands like in past years. Changes in the Earth’s geology and the forces that govern it don’t just change in a matter of a year. The concept of a year is a human construct that the inanimate Earth is not aware of. For a piece of rock that has been around for over five billion years, a few years shouldn’t really be that big a deal.

And yes, the terror persists since that is what sells. The media have traditionally hyped drastic changes to get more mileage in the story only to pull the details and other punches. The fear is what makes the news sexy and what makes the public catch on. The media has spun many stories just to create undue alarm – the stories about the African Killer Bees in America, super pathogens, and even the Millennium Bug come to mind as the much-bandied-about never-was-apocalyptic stories that the press came up with.

Before jumping to conclusions and joining the bandwagon saying that the movie 2012 might just hold true, look at the figures and take a quick glance in the statistics. Sometimes, it’s really tempting to draw conclusions that make the initial argument look more compelling and more believable but at the end of the day, facts are facts. During times that people might be panicking due to the supposed increase in earthquakes, it helps to be more calm about the situation. Too much information – especially when it comes to the science of the earth and the natural processes that govern it – would never hurt anyone. Make it a point to try and understand your world better so that you will not fall prey to rumor-mongering by those who try to sensationalize the wondrous processes that the Earth exhibits from time to time.

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