The Philippine Online Chronicles

The Al Qaeda's number two man behind Osama bin Laden said that he feels that victory is coming. This was what Ayman al-Zawahiri said on a recording that was posted on various jihadist websites a few days ago. The voice on the recording then also praises the efforts being done in Afghanistan and Iraq and said they would eventually lead to more glorious and definitive successes – like the recapturing of Jerusalem.

The recording was produced by As Sahab Media – known to be the production company of the Al Qaeda network. As of press time, the authenticity of the voice recording had still not been verified independently.

The Al Qaeda and other militant organizations based on the premise of Islamic fundamentalism have used the rhetoric of the Israeli “occupation” of Jerusalem and other lands in the current state of Israel as a strong tool for propaganda and recruitment. They play on the belief that some Arabs have, that Israel must not be too possessive of land Arabs regard as rightfully theirs. Just like Christians and Jewish people, Muslims also consider Jerusalem one of their holiest sites. The prophet Muhammad is believed to have risen to heaven at the same point where the Dome of the Rock was constructed. Next to Mecca and Medina, Jerusalem is Islam’s third holiest pilgrimage site.

'Not well'

General David Petraeus himself has admitted that the operations in the area of Helmand province – most especially in the Marjah region – have not gone well relative to most optimistic expectations. Almost 15 thousand troops comprised of Afghans, Americans, Britons, Canadians, Danes and Estonians have been involved in "Operation Moshtarak," which is meant to quash the Taliban stronghold in the area. Petraeus has said that “while progress is being made, it has been harder and slower than anticipated.” It has been almost six months since the operations in Marjah began.

Pro-Taliban sentiment is pretty high in the area due to a deeply entrenched warlord culture among its residents. The region is also a very significant location as far as the heroin trade is concerned. Much of the illegal drugs crop is said to be planted in the Marjah region, and heroin transit to other parts of the world often begins in this area. The opium trade which continues to constitute a huge part of Afghanistan’s economy is seen as one of the biggest reasons why the insurgency is still relatively well-funded.

One-sided coverage

The purported al-Zawahiri voice recording which was leaked online mocked the media for being one-sided about the coverage in Marjah province. It alleged that the clashes in the area were well-reported during the beginning of the campaign but the coverage has now stopped due to the fact that the mujahedeen have been winning in the area.

The voice then proceeded to ridicule the United States’ President Barack Obama, saying that while Obama has promised that the Taliban will never get back in power, it is for sure that the Americans and the rest of the coalition will be the ones leaving Afghanistan when the war is over.

Obama has promised an exit strategy for both Iraq and Afghanistan and it has been one of the things that General Stanley McChrystal and the President have butted heads over. A controversial interview done by McChrystal, which was published in Rolling Stone magazine, is believed to be the reason McChrystal was relieved of his post as top commander in the military operations in  Afghanistan. The exit strategy would be one of the main talking points come Obama’s re-election attempt on 2012 and it would be interesting to see whether or not Obama can pull it off.

Even leaders of the moderate countries in the Arab world were not saved from the vitriol that the voice spewedHe called the leaders “Zionists” for supporting the existence of Israel in the very contentious battle with Gaza. He also challenged the Muslim countries in the area to support the efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan by sending Muslim troops themselves and giving out intelligence services. He also praised the efforts of Abu Dajana Al-Khorasani who is believed to be a suicide bomber who killed seven Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operatives and a Jordanian army captain in Khost, Afghanistan.

Al-Zawahiri then singled out the leadership of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and even the Palestinian Authority for being “more dangerous than Jewish Zionists.” He calls the leaders of these nations “traitors” for being tolerant of the cause and existence of the Jewish Israeli state.

The message also contained a short message of condolence to the family of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri. Both were killed in Iraq in clashes with coalition forces.

First recording since May

This recording is believed to be the first recording since May. It could be recalled that al-Zawahiri has been falsely reported as being killed by strategic US aircraft attacks in the tribal region of Pakistan near the border with Afghanistan. The death of al-Zawahiri has been reported at least twice by the Western media in 2006 and 2008 before being proven wrong by a subsequent recording.

Both al-Zawahiri and bin Laden himself are believed to be hiding out in the tribal regions of Pakistan. The tribal region of Pakistan is comprised of seven smaller sectors that function independently from each other. This area is near the chaotic border with Afghanistan and is relatively autonomous from the central government in the capital of Islamabad.  It is in the mountainous part near the border, making it the ideal place for hiding. Trying to locate fugitives and terrorists in this environment is the literal needle in a haystack scenario for coalition operatives.

It is said that people who live in this part of the country don’t even consider themselves primarily Pakistani –they are citizens of their tribal region first and they often look at other Pakistanis with much suspicion. The relations of the capital with this de facto breakaway region has been tumultuous even before the 9/11 attacks that downed the World Trade Center buildings, but it has definitely heated up tension since the Americans have tried to exert effort on the Pakistani government to help bringing the perpetrators of the attack to justice. The area's relationship with the rest of Pakistan continues to be testy and the political intricacies along with the rugged terrain would make it very difficult for the coalition forces moving forward.