The Philippine Online Chronicles

There are only a few nuclear powers in the world. However, the number is growing – to the dismay of some current members of the so-called “nuclear club.”

Leading the pack are the United States, China, Russia, France, and Great Britain, who are bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which intends to limit the proliferation of nuclear arms. Trailing them are nations like India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, who are also known to have some nuclear capacity, but are not under the NPT.

The latest nation attempting to join the club seems to be Iran, a Middle Eastern nation with a history of conflict and a presidency that some in the international community find difficult to deal with.

Iran has recently stepped up its nuclear program, developing higher grade uranium for use as a power source. Some believe that Iran intends to refine uranium to eventually produce a nuclear bomb, although the nation has repeatedly denied this.

The Western world has made it clear that it will not stand for a nuclear-armed Iran, and have laid down warnings and heavy economic sanctions against the Islamic state. This has not prevented Iran from moving forward with its plans, although it remains vague for now where these plans will eventually lead.

Reaching 20 percent enrichment

During the rally marking the 31^st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that the country has produced its first batch of uranium enriched to 20 percent.

Until this point, Iran had been able to enrich Uranium to 3.5 percent for use as a source of power. According to Iranian authorities, uranium enriched to 20 percent will be used for a reactor that will produce isotopes for medical purposes. However, nuclear threat watchers remain wary, as the lower stages of uranium enrichment are the most difficult. From 20 percent, it would only be a matter of time before uranium is enriched to weapon-grade quality at 90 percent.

"They all know that right now in Natanz [refinery], we have the capacity to enrich uranium at high levels,” Ahmedinejad added during the anniversary rally. "We have the capacity to enrich above 20, even 80 [percent]. But because we have no need, we won't do that."

In response to the announcement, the US expressed doubts that Iran could have immediately reached that level of uranium enrichment.

"We do not believe they have the capability to enrich [uranium] to the degree to which they now say they are enriching," said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs. “[Ahmedinejad] made a series of statements that are ... based on politics not on physics."

He added, "The Iranian nuclear program has undergone a series of problems throughout the year. Quite frankly what Ahmadinejad says ... he says many things and many of them turn out to be untrue."

Whether or not the nation is actually capable of producing highly-refined uranium, some have construed Iran’s announcement as a sign that it is indeed harboring nuclear weapon ambitions.

The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (P5), Britain, China, France, Russia, USA, together with Germany, have collectively tried dissuading Iran from pursuing this ambition. Israel, which has been on the receiving end of hostile remarks from Ahmadinejad, has also been vocal in its protests.

Failed fuel swap

When Iran first announced it was enriching uranium for energy purposes, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – an international nuclear watchdog – tried to broker a fuel swap wherein Iran would give its 1,200-kg stock of low-enriched uranium to a refinery in Russia in exchange for high-grade nuclear fuel which could be used to power the Tehran reactor to produce medical isotopes. The move would have saved Iran considerable costs in building its own uranium facilities, and assured the West that it is not developing a nuclear weapon.

Although Iran initially agreed to dialogue about a fuel swap, it presented two conditions that the Western powers saw to be a deal breaker. Any fuel exchange must be simultaneous, and Iran must determine how much uranium it will give “on the basis of [the country's] needs,” said Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs Manouchehr Mottaki. Also, it would be the one to inform other parties about its requirements.

The conditions sparked suspicions in the international community about Iran's intended use for any “extra” nuclear fuel.

According to director of foreign policy and defense at the Center for European Reform Tomas Valasek, "That's a deal breaker, because of course the whole idea behind the deal is let's get all of the stuff out so that we win more time so that the Israelis don't feel itchy and don't bomb Iran in the next few weeks."

"If they are prepared to take up the original proposal of the P-5 plus one of delivering 1,200 kilograms of their low enriched uranium all at once to an agreed party, I think there would be a response to that," said Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov.

"But...they have done nothing to reassure the international community that they are prepared to comply with the NPT or stop their progress toward a nuclear weapon, and therefore I think various nations need to think about whether the time has come for a different tack."

Nuclear Iran dangerous?

At the core of the international community's near-panic over Iran’s nuclear development is President Ahmadinejad's history of hostility towards nations like the US and Israel.

Ahmadinejad featured in the tumultuous Iranian elections last year, when he was proclaimed president for a second term despite mass protests rallying to the side of political rival Mir-Hossein Mousavi, whose supporters insisted he was the actual winner of the elections. Ahmadinejad went on to claim the presidency with the blessing of Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

According to a 2006 analysis by James Philips at Heritage, Ahmadinejad is an “ideological hardliner” who has adopted the “fiery rhetoric” of the Iranian Revolution, the event spurred by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini which transformed Iran into a fundamentalist theocracy in 1979.

Ahmadinejad has lambasted the US as “a failing power” and a “threat to the Muslim world.” He has also verbally attacked Israel, saying in a speech that “as the Imam [Khomeini] said, Israel must be wiped off the map.”

Despite Iran’s denial that it is developing nuclear weapons, Philips noted that Ahmadinejad is “firmly committed to Iran’s nuclear program” and “has no intention to fully cooperate with the IAEA or end the uranium enrichment activities that eventu­ally will give it a nuclear weapons capability."

Hossein Aryan wrote in the article “Understanding Iran's Defiant Nuclear Policy” that Iran is merely playing for time in agreeing to dialogues with the IAEA and international community. “Iran wants to build nuclear bombs; it is not genuinely interested in a diplomatic solution,” he said.

Military strike

Upon Iran’s announcement that it has enriched uranium to 20 percent, the US vowed stronger sanctions against the oil-rich nation. Aryan has noted that the actions of the US have the “implicit” threat of a military strike.

"Despite the posturing that the nuclear power is only for civilian use ... [the Iranians] in fact continue to pursue a course that would lead to weaponization," said US President Barack Obama. "And that is not acceptable to the international community."

The permanent members of the UN Security Council are in agreement that more action needs to be taken against Iran, with the exception of China, which fosters economic ties with the Middle Eastern nation.

However, some have questioned whether economic sanctions alone would be enough to deter Iran.

"Iran is racing forward to produce nuclear weapons," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “This means crippling sanctions…[which] must be applied right now."

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Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's nuclear programme, tells Al Jazeera that it is Iran's right to refine uranium to whatever level it needs. (AlJazeeraEnglish)

Photo: “Natanz Nuclear Facility” by Hamed Saber, c/o Flickr. Some Rights Reserved.