The Philippine Online Chronicles

Hope was voted in with cautious optimism in tow.

This was yesterday.

Nine score years ago, Congress impeached a sitting president and in the months that followed, ousted that president by People Power fiat. It came as a joyous relief. The drunkard and populist president was swept aside. Who knew that such an act would have terrible repercussions?

For each scandal unsolved, it chipped further at our nation’s faltering confidence, at our nation’s compass and our people’s spirit.

For every unanswered impropriety the values and norms of our day have likewise been twisted as the law was perverted. This is the consequence of greed and irresponsibility of some and our collective choice of the easy way over preparing our nation to meet tomorrow head on.

It was not apathy that ruled the day; it was cynicism that nothing could be done to bring a semblance of propriety back to our national life.

Filipinos carried on, simply because We the People chose to stand our ground, faithful to our constitution. We the People choose an election to enact change.

So it must now be.

Our nation has been in the midst of crisis, it is little understood. For all the numbers, GDP does not measure a floundering quality of life. Our treasury is empty, 300 billion in deficit. Our war in Mindanao continues. Our health struggles, and our children have fallen short in their education.

The lowest citizen to the highest has been a party to the state of affairs we find ourselves in. It is the uncertain times and fairyland We the People find ourselves in.

This is where transformational leadership steps in to change.

The words scribbled in our constitution are clear. It is our people’s desire to build a just and humane society. It is our people’s desire to establish a government that reflect the ideals and aspirations of the day, under a regime of truth, justice, freedom, love, equality and peace.

“My legacy to my future children: I’m voting for Character" from the Art of Change Making blog is an Aquino campaign insider talking about the experiences she had with Senator Aquino during the 2010 campaign. Nines wrote:

“I saw from up close the kinds of issues that Sen. Aquino has had to battle day in and day out, and I, too, saw how he would choose to respond to these. As someone who was also privy to the inner workings of his campaign, I saw how he would get members of his team to tow the line–frequently reminding everyone that “the straight yet narrow and difficult path is always better than the easy, crooked road.” When there would be questions on policy or messaging, the only barometer for choosing the most appropriate response would be: “What is the right thing to do?” “Where can we find the truth?” Taking the most convenient way out was NEVER an option.”

The path ahead is packed with much trial, and abundant tribulation. It is not for the faint of heart.

Hardened by nine months of blood, toil, sweat and tears, men and women put aside their ambition and sacrificed, that real change may come to these islands. They saw that this land could be a better nation that children may be born and grow up in. They saw that this country could be greater than the sum of the ambition and greed of a few; that We the People are greater than the differences of birth and wealth.

The easy work is done; the hard part has just begun.

It is time to pick ourselves up and dust ourselves off. Now the moment comes that we remake our nation, but what else is our people telling us?

The tragedy of commons

This is today.

As the nation is poised to elevate Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III to the presidency with overwhelming numbers, do our people have such a black sense of humor?

The senate is turning out to be composed of old school, senate veterans, with the exception of Marcos, and -- if either or both are elected -- Guingona and Hontiveros.

Whatever the case may be, with Hontiveros struggling in the race, the obvious response would be that reproductive health, which Hontiveros championed, was a non-issue. It signaled that reproductive health is an issue that was not maximized as a campaign strategy. On the onset, unless a reorganization is accomplished, it will be a hostile senate to an Aquino presidency.

The election of Bongbong Marcos is disturbing -- the sins of the father and all that -- and his election opens the possibility to a second Marcos presidency in 2016.

Marcos could be the Lex Luthor to Aquino’s Superman -- if only in name. The nation has yet to test this Marcos in a national setting.

With this initial senate composition, our national life is shaping up to be a tragedy of commons.

Beyond the obvious election of more experienced and veteran senators with name recognition, it is an attempt to balance integrity and competence.

Put another way, populating the senate with “experienced and veteran” legislators as opposed to the Aquino presidency is the people’s foolish, misguided attempt at “check and balance.” What people are saying is that “hey, we’re giving you the presidency, and expect you to move the sun and the moon and the stars, but we’re also setting you up to fail. So work hard, ok? Beat expectations.”

However the final composition will be, what’s left is an epic struggle, a tragedy of commons. Much will therefore ride on how Aquino’s allies in the senate can help him navigate the treacherous waters of that august body. In congress, the tried and tested pork could be dangled to keep the House in line and hold the line against Congresswoman Arroyo.

Congresswoman Arroyo

The election of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was largely expected, with no opposition to run against her. She only matters if the numbers favor her. Numbers that reach impeachment level figures, at the very least.

History dictates that the House typically reorganizes to support the administration, and if that premise continues to hold true then the battle will shift to the senate.

The importance of surveys

At the onset of the campaign, Villar conducted what Manolo Quezon called “the air war.” As strategists and tacticians know (and real time strategy players too), you can’t invade land with just planes. You still need your army and your marines. Planes simply don’t occupy land.

With that in mind, the rise of Estarda and the fall of Villar follows our raison d'être from the start of the campaign. That in this election, voter preference sided with “cares for the poor” and “not corrupt.” This ties very well with Aquino’s regained popularity following the near equal footing he and Villar had at the beginning of the race. It ties very well with making the case between integrity and competence.

The messaging worked. “Kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap (if there is no corruption, there is no poverty)." This resonated with voters.

This is another thing that worked. Through surveys, we could early on conclude that the stragglers were a non-issue to begin with. Teodoro didn’t gain any traction. Not only did he not get funds and Lakas machinery, but his message simply didn’t resonate with voters.

The same with Gordon, and the same with Villanueva and the other players.

Teodoro's and Gordon's supporters were loud online, which was a battlefield to be sure, but it was the air war. The ground war needed to be won.

It was Aquino versus VIllar from the beginning. In every campaign, there are limited resources and Aquino didn’t have Villar’s deep pockets. You can’t fight a war on multiple fronts on a shoestring budget.

Listening to the poll numbers and basically ignoring everyone else but VIllar proved an able strategy. It took months to do, but by the last leg of the campaign, right around Easter Sunday, Villar was definitely finished.

With defeat assured, Villar and Legarda will return to the senate. The question is, could they rally support to be a thorn in the side of an Aquino presidency?

Manny Villar and Erap Estrada

With VIllar done, why did Erap Estrada surge?

The campaign of Manny Villar basically took on the premise of “Erap para sa Mahirap,” from the color to the messaging. The utter dismantlement of the Villar campaign led to that demographic returning to Erap. Together with missteps at messaging, coupled with rants from the NP camp, if there was any doubt then, the final nail in the coffin was the stock scandal, which Estrada’s campaign hammered down. It was without doubt payback time for Erap, and he used that to leap ahead of Villar's campaign.

The message "para sa mahirap" after all suited Erap more than Manny Villar. Retaking that nomenclature may not have won Estrada a presidency, but it restored two things for him: his demographic, and the dignity of finishing second in a contest in which few considered him a contender in the first place. The benefit is not to Erap but to Jinggoy, who could inherit his father’s demographic for a shot at the presidency and, like Bongbong Marcos, a shot at redeeming the family name.

The defeat of Panlilio

Once a flickering light amidst the dark, Pampanga goes dark and back to the Arroyos and their allies, with Pineda poised to win and Arroyo to take a seat in congress. All politics are local and Arroyo focused her power and might to gain her home province.

Where does this leave us?

This is tomorrow.

The Binay versus Roxas story isn’t done as of this writing. If Binay wins, it solidifies the tragedy of commons our people seem to be in. We’ll give you hope and integrity but we will provide a check and balance.

If Roxas wins, then our people are generous. Without doubt, I hold on to hope that Roxas will win.

Cynicism didn’t die, but it is a shadow of its former self.

Without doubt, hope, integrity and volunteerism won.

Hope won, but it is hope tempered with cautious optimism.

To the disgruntled and unsatisfied, we've yet to test the depth and breadth of what May 2010 has accomplished. Give it a chance. Our people are not as blind as you might think.

To elect is easy, the hard part comes when hand in hand, we begin to remake our Republic.

The resounding victory of Aquino is a signal that people do want change. People want Aquino’s values to resonate. They do want character, but they have a cautious optimism mixed with dark humor, holding back just a bit.

Close to 38 million Filipinos from every walk of life braved the scorching summer sun to bestow upon hope a duty, and a measure of trust paid for in blood, toil, sweat and tears. We marched with our ballot, though it was a struggle. Nine years of blackest night ended on Monday, the 10th of May, 2010. That chapter ended, swept aside by the desire to hope, to dream, to live, tempered by a cautious optimism.

Yesterday is over.

Today is a new day.

Tomorrow has much promise.

The yellow sun is shining in Brightest Day!

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Photo: “A greet to the town folks” by Franz Lopez, c/o Flickr. Some Rights Reserved.