The Philippine Online Chronicles

For the candidates for the presidency and the vice-presidency, they are making one of the biggest gambits in the world of politics. Regardless of which country you are running in, the odds are, if you lose a race for one of the top two offices of the land, you will most likely end up lose in succeeding tries to win again at higher office. Since the 1992 Philippine Elections – the first one since the years of dictatorship under Ferdinand Marcos – there have been four candidates who have dared to run for president twice in different elections.

The fiery lawyer

Miriam Defensor-Santiago was a prominent lawyer and trial court judge before she splashed into the national scene for politics. While much has been said about how she has embellished her resume by exaggerating her exploits in summer courses held in Harvard and Oxford, she did capture the public’s imagination with her way with words and fiery attitude. She had a no-nonsense approach to things and air of intelligence and eloquence that was quite hard to be not impressed by.

So in 1992, backed by a party comprised of her closest friends and political allies that she called the People’s Reform Party, Santiago went on a very ambitious plan to become the next president of the Philippines. She didn’t have the funds, executive experience or the machinery to really have a solid campaign but she did come very close to winning. In the closest presidential races post-Marcos, Santiago narrowly lost to former military man Fidel Ramos by just under a million votes. Santiago had a very strong showing in the Visayas and even some parts of Mindanao. Manila also voted overwhelming for the impassioned lone female candidate for the presidency not named Imelda Marcos. She got almost 4.5 million votes (almost 20 percent of the entire electorate) but was still bested by Ramos.

After her loss, she alleged that various cheating tactics were done to ensure that she wouldn’t ascend to Malacanang. Ronaldo Puno – a name that would be repeatedly linked to issues of election fraud for many elections to come; was floated for the first time as the possible architect for Ramos’ win. In 1995, Santiago ran for the senate and won easily. Since there were twelve slots available for the senate it was expected that Santiago would get a lot of support. Despite her national fame, Santiago only reached the sixth spot and had 9.5 million votes to her name. By comparison, an up and coming female senatoriable by the name of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (did that ring a bell?!) had over 15 million votes while another rising star in local politics Raul Roco had over 12 million votes. Despite all her popularity and with a good amount of people thinking that she was the legitimate winner of the 1992 elections, Miriam’s winnability took a big dip. Perhaps her 1995 victory was a sign that her reputation and her standing as a potential president has diminished. In a lot of respects, her underwhelming win could have been taken as a loss as far as her aspirations for higher office was concerned.

Despite writing on the wall, Santiago still ran for the highest office in the land. With nothing to lose – she still had three years left on her senatorial seat – she threw her hat into the ring as the only female contender out of ten hopefuls and the results were disastrous compared to her inspiring 1992 campaign. From capturing almost 20 percent of the total votes available, Santiago had to be contented with just three percent of the vote. She trailed eventual winner Joseph Estrada, Jose de Venecia, Raul Roco, Alfredo Lim, Emilio Osmeña and Renato de Villa. She amassed less than 800 000 votes and it was clearly an omen of things to come.

After being one of the senators who voted against the opening of the second envelope, Santiago failed in her bid to be one of the senators elected in 2001. After losing the election, she was charged with rebellion due to her part in stoking the flames of dissent during the People Power 3 movement led by the supporters of ousted President Joseph Estrada.

She would regain control of her old senate seat in 2004 but it was clear that she was no longer who she once was when she was still a fresh new comer to the scene. She’s running for her third senate term and while she’s likely to win, it’s very hard to bet that she will ever come close to the presidency ever again. She will be unable to run for re-election on 2016 so she might try to woo the public again for the presidency one last time. Knowing how old she will be by then, it may just be her last hurrah.

..and yet another fiery lawyer

Raul Roco won a three-year term as senator when he finished 19^th in what is the country’s biggest senatorial race in history. He ran again in 1995 and simply emerged as one of the most influential forces in Philippine politics. He ran under the LDP (Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino) and was the second-leading vote getter next to Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. He was able to get over 12 million votes despite only tallying 4.8 million three years before. In his three years in the senate, Roco was able to reach out to the public and communicate his vision for better educational standards and advocacies for the plight of women and the underserved.

Despite having three years left in his senate seat, Roco tried his luck in the 1998 election. Roco was the surprise third placer behind the big winner Joseph Estrada and the administration candidate Jose de Venecia. Roco was able to get over 3.7 million votes and over 13 percent of the electorate. The snowballing of support for Estrada prior to the election was undeniable. He clearly had the support of the masses and he was polling really high in the surveys. Whether or not Roco ran to float a weather a balloon for a future campaign will never be known but it did really seem like he would be really naive to think that he was going to have a shot at winning.

When Roco’s term ended in 2001, he had no option of going for another stab at re-election. He accepted a position in Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s cabinet as the Department of Education secretary and this allowed him to even pull in greater political capital. As late as September of 2003, Raul Roco was still the top choice of a lot Filipinos when polled about who they wanted to be the nation’s next president. This was one month before GMA decided to retract her earlier pronouncements that she was not going to run for the presidency in 2004 and when senator Noli de Castro was still among the main people considered for the role of chief executive.

As the elections drew nearer however, the lack of machinery backing Roco’s candidacy began to show itself. After naming his list of senators, it became clear that Roco doesn’t even have the support of any prominent politician. The vision that he was peddling was very inspiring to a lot of Filipinos but many were struggling to get on board the idea of supporting his candidacy with the threat of a Fernando Poe Jr. presidency looming. Anti-Erap sentiment was still pretty strong back in those days and many people were afraid that the election of an untested movie star would just worsen the political divide that was already happening. This was the time when people started using the term “lesser evil” when describing how they came up with their choices for the presidency. Roco was the first choice of one of every five Filipinos back in September  but most of them were not committed enough to maintain support for someone who was clearly struggling with raising funds and manpower for a campaign. The constant rumors about his failing health did not also do him any favors.

One month before the elections, Roco had to leave the country for the United States. He claimed that he needed treatment for his chronic back pains. The grapevine was rumbling about his alleged bout with cancer and how his trip was supposed to be one that could help him ease his pain a bit. By the time Roco came back, it was clear that he was nowhere near the last spot. The last survey done by the Social Weather Station illustrates how his popularity has dropped from 19 percent in January to just 6 percent during the week before the actual elections. Back in 2004, 20 percent of the polled voters considered themselves as “tactical voters” meaning they were voting for a candidate just because they were trying to make sure that another candidate would lose.

Despite being carried to huge provincial victories by Camarines Sur and Albay, Raul Roco struggled to poll high in other provinces. In most other places, he was either fourth or fifth behind Bangon Pilipinas standard bearer Eddie Villanueva. The end result had Roco just barely edging out the evangelist 1.94 million to 1.78 million. Roco took 6.8 percent of the total votes needed and his story became a sobering reality for everyone – you really do need a strong machinery to launch a strong national campaign for the presidency.

Just one year after the elections, Roco would die after his bout with prostate cancer. Many consider him as the best president the Philippines never had.

The televangelist

Eddie Villanueva inspired and surprised a lot of people when he announced in 2003 that he was seeking the highest office in the land. He has been the leader of the Born-Again Christian group Jesus is Lord Church. He was able to capture the imagination and hopes of a highly jaded demographic. Leading a largely positive and inspiration campaign that boasted of his righteousness, Villanueva was able to elevate himself from a political nobody to near-household-name status in just a few short months.  Villanueva never polled high in the SWS surveys. His highest showing was a month before the actual election when he had 4 percent of the vote.

There were calls to unite the slates of Roco and Villanueva but it never really materialized. As a result, Villanueva ended up last in a race that involved five candidates. He had a respectable vote total of over 1.7 million – roughly six percent of the electorate.

Villanueva is running again for the presidency for 2010 and if surveys are to be believed as a general trend of whether or not a candidate has a chance of winning, then it’s not looking good for him at all.  According to the late April survey of the SWS, Villanueva can only expect to get 2-3% of the electorate’s vote. With 50 million people registered to vote, even at a high turnout; Villanueva will be hard pressed to replicate the 1.74 million figure he posted in 2004. At the rate that things are going, breaking through the one million vote mark may be quite a challenge in itself.

The question in everybody’s mind – will he bother running again in 2016?

The Returning “Champion”

Joseph Ejercito Estrada won the presidency in 1998 by tallying over 39 percent of the votes available from the electorate. He had a vote total larger than the vote totals of his four next opponents combined (de Venecia, Roco, Osmeña and Lim). His margin of 6.5 million votes over de Venecia remains to be the biggest margin of victory in the past three presidential elections.

Estrada was then ousted via a peaceful middle class led revolt in 2001. He was eventually convicted of plunder but he was still clearly a force to be reckoned with in Philippine politics despite being behind bars for the better part of the last decade. He made his wife Loi Estrada run for the senate in 2001. Jinggoy Estrada also ran in 2004. Both were victorious and Jinggoy is even a favored to win his second six year term in the 2010 polls.

Interestingly though, despite all the tribulations that Erap has had to deal with, he is actually favored to come up with a very respectable showing in this year’s election. While he is still considered to be long shot as far as winning the election is concerned, he has been projected to have over a quarter of the electorate’s support. The latest poll from SWS has him trailing Noynoy Aquino by 12 percent – 38 to 26. That total could actually allow him to somehow replicate his 10 million vote showing back in 1998. This is no small feat considering how much he has suffered both in popularity and in clout in the past decade. For him to supplant a former front runner in Manny Villar who has spent oodles of money in this campaign for over the past three years, Erap must be really pleased with himself. It is a testament to his lasting appeal to the Filipino masses.

The so-called political butterfly

Loren Legarda was a well-respected and multi-awarded journalist before she ran for the Senate in 1998. She topped senatorial race when she pulled nearly 15 million votes. She would then become one of the most recognizable members of the Upper House especially during the controversial impeachment trial of Joseph Estrada.

In 2004 however, following Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s decision to run with Noli de Castro instead Legarda was forced to entertain the offer of Erap Estrada’s close friend and political ally Fernando Poe Jr. This started the rumblings that Legarda was indeed a “political butterfly” who would go to whichever party could help her with her goals. Running on a platform heavy on environmentalism and women’s rights, Legarda did very well in the surveys.

In the end game though, Noli de Castro was able to edge Legarda for the second highest office in the country by a mere 800 thousand votes amidst a sea of controversy regarding vote padding and data manipulation.

Legarda would then run for the senate in 2007 yet again. For the second time in her political career, she would top the race and secure herself another six year term as a senator. She would then declare her intentions to run as vice-president in 2010 despite not having a definite running mate. Manny Villar will eventually pluck her out and make her his vice-presidential bet on the Nacionalista Party ticket.

Despite the popular belief that the administration cheated back in 2004, it doesn’t seem like Legarda has the public’s support anymore. In opinion polls regarding her candidacy, Legardas has now dropped as the third most preferred option by people as far as the vice-presidency is concerned. With Jejomar Binay and Mar Roxas being the more likely winners, it seems like Legarda is about head for another devastating loss despite being one of the front runners early on.

Like Santiago, it seems like Loren is doomed to stay in the senate – never really getting a chance to advance to the two positions that are higher in the system of government.

Those who tried to outwit the trend

Chiz Escudero probably made the right call by backing off from running for president in the 2010 polls. The death of Cory Aquino did change the game and it would have been hard for him to get the votes needed to really contend for the title. He had the makings of a future president – he had the presence, charisma and the party support to make it happen but the circumstances were certainly not right for the 2010 elections so he decided to let this one go and fight another day.

Mar Roxas is a candidate who may have the most to lose in these elections should he fail in securing the vice-presidency. He initially set his sights on  the presidency before the fortuitous events on August 2009 happened that sort of pressured him to step aside as the Liberal Party’s standard bearer. Roxas may have been selling his sould and private life on Wowowee but he was clearly not polling well in the surveys. Despite the many scheduled “news” events that surrounded his 2009 calendar year, the public just didn’t warm up to him enough.

Should Roxas lose this battle against Binay (or Legarda), this could very well mean the end of his presidential ambitions for 2016. Chiz Escudero will not likely lose to somebody who has choked on the tail end of a fairly good campaign. Roxas was the favorite all throughout the race and even flirted with a majority win just a few months ago. Now, he’s locked in a really tight battle with Binay after the latter got the endorsement of Chiz Escudero.

The trend seems likely to hold true unless something drastic happens in the next few days. Gilbert Teodoro and Richard Gordon – both of whom are highly accomplished and very qualified for the presidency – will likely lose the elections. The loss would probably mean that a future attempt to run and get elected for president or vice-president may be unsuccessful. The same holds true for outgoing senator Jamby Madrigal; not that anyone cares.

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