The Philippine Online Chronicles

If one were to read the news headlines one would think that Aquino is out to have a landslide. At 37% of polled voters, obviously Aquino isn't getting a landslide - no fat chance. It will be a stretch of the imagination to say that Aquino will have a mandate, when he does not have the support of 66% of polled voters.

Here's snippets of the news from the Inquirer:

Aquino leads Villar by 9 pts in new poll
Support by poor for NP bet slips; Estrada gains
Philippine Daily Inquirer

First Posted 00:33:00 03/30/2010
Filed Under: Inquirer Politics, Eleksyon 2010, Elections, Opinion surveys, Benigno Aquino III, Manny Villar
MANILA, Philippines—Weakening support by the poor for presidential candidate Manuel Villar Jr. and their steady backing of Benigno Aquino III have given Aquino a clear lead over Villar, according to results of a nationwide survey conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS) this month.

At the same time, there was a surge in support by the rich and middle class for Aquino and a huge drop in their support for Villar.
As a result, voters’ preference for Villar dropped 6 percentage points from 34 percent in February to 28 percent in the SWS survey conducted from March 19 to 22.

And this one's from the Manila Bulletin.

Aquino leads Villar in latest survey

By ELLALYN B. DE VERA
March 29, 2010, 5:17pm

Liberal Party (LP) bet Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III has regained a significant nine-point lead over his closest rival Nacionalista Party (NP) standard-bearer Senator Manuel Villar Jr., in the latest survey conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS) and daily broadsheet BusinessWorld.

The nationwide survey conducted March 19 to 22 among 2,100 respondents showed that Aquino’s percentage increased by a point with 37 percent from 36 percent in the SWS-Businessworld survey last month.

Meanwhile, Villar’s rating dropped by six points from 34 percent in February to 28 percent at present.

The respondents were particularly asked “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente, Bise-Presidente, at mga Senador ng Pilipinas. Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as President, Vice-President, and Senators of the Philippines. Here is the list of candidates.)”

They were instructed to shade the oval beside the name of the persons they would most likely vote for in a prepared ballot with the candidates’ names.

Reading about Aquino's 9 point lead over Villar (37% vs 28%) reminds me of George Dubya Bush, Jr's approval ratings - on his way out.

It kinda strikes me as hilarious - that the 37% lead of Noynoy - is considered a new low elsewhere. How much more pathetic does it get?

Poll: Bush's popularity hits new low

CNN, updated 9:50 p.m. EDT, Wed March 19, 2008

Five years after he green-lighted the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, President Bush faced strikingly low approval ratings as he reaffirmed his commitment to "accept no outcome but victory" in the war.

Just 31 percent of Americans approve of how President Bush is handling his job, according to a poll released Wednesday, the anniversary of the start of the conflict in 2003.

Sixty-seven percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey disapprove of the president's performance.

The 31 percent approval number is a new low for Bush in CNN polling and is 40 points lower than the president's number at the start of the Iraq war.

"Bush's approval rating five years ago, at the start of the Iraq war, was 71 percent, and that 40-point drop is almost identical to the drop President Lyndon Johnson faced during the Vietnam War," CNN polling director Keating Holland said.

"Johnson's approval rating was 74 percent just before Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin resolution in 1964, which effectively authorized the Vietnam War. Four years later, his approval was down to 35 percent, a 39-point drop that is statistically identical to what Bush has faced so far over the length of the Iraq war," he said.

I have just updated a previous conclusion I made in an earlier blog to make it more recent.

The updated conclusion now reads - The best candidate who can deliver  Noynoy’s platform isn’t Noynoy - 66% of Filipinos AGREE! (up from 55% in January).

Is that cause for celebration? Nope. The doofus still leads the pack and is still the main contender. Thirty seven (37%) still puts Noynoy within range of the Presidency. Note that the Philippine presidency was captured by Erap and Arroyo at roughly 40% of voters. FVR bagged the presidency with 21% of voters - which indicates Villar is also in striking distance of the Presidency.

What this tells me is that when today's ocho ocho revolution gang is in Malacañang it better be ready to face another ocho ocho crowd. Noynoy's anticorruption crusade will turn into a witchhunt - business proceeds at snail's pace, while Kamaganak, Inc celebrates another round of helping themselves only. Paranoia? Not if Belinda Olivarez-Cunanan had her say:

Political Tidbits
By Belinda Olivares-Cunanan
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 22:09:00 01/06/2010

So much texting went around about the recent Inquirer editorial lambasting Philippine Olympic Committee president Jose “Peping” Cojuangco’s for pressuring RP cyclist Maritess Bitbit to withdraw from the recent 25th Southeast Asian Games in Laos. Bitbit was the only Filipino athlete recognized and licensed by the International Cycling Federation to compete in Laos, but because she does not belong to the association aligned with Cojuangco, she was asked to withdraw from the Games. The editorial said Cojuangco’s resurgence brings up the “other side” of the Aquino legacy and Edsa, and called on his nephew, Noynoy Aquino, to hold him to account, lest his own “noble” image be tarred.

Cojuangco was one of the prominent members of the dynastic “Kamag-Anak, Inc.” whose machinations led Don Chino Roces, who had gathered a million signatures to convince Cory Aquino to run against Marcos, to denounce right in Malacañang the “highwaymen” among her relatives mid-way into her administration. Cojuangco has resurrected as a key power-broker for Noynoy and how the candidate handles this issue, as well as that of Hacienda Luisita, which his uncle has run all these years, will be crucial.

***

This is tied to the reports about fierce in-fighting among the various groups supporting Noynoy, which stems from, among other things, the attempts of Cojuangco’s group to recruit traditional politicians, which is being opposed by Liberal ideologues. Today there are said to be at least five groups fiercely fighting for dominance in that camp: the Cojuangcos, the Aquinos (led by strategist Paul Aquino and former Representative Butz Aquino), the Drilon-Abad faction, the Hyatt 10 group that overlaps with the Black & White Movement, and civil society leaders who revived the million signatures campaign for Noynoy. The fierce in-fighting apparently stems from the perception that the candidate is weak and “clueless” on leadership, in contrast to Manny Villar or Gilbert Teodoro who appear to be in full command of their people.

Political historians saw this in-fighting for dominance during the Cory era when various power groups, including the coup-prone military then, Cory loyalists in the Palace and the “Council of Trent,” sought to pull the neophyte politician in various directions, like the medieval torture of quartering. There is justifiable fear that Noynoy could be similarly manipulated, especially since he didn’t exhibit any leadership prior to his mother’s passing, and some of his supporters are known for their predilection to leave their leader high and dry at some point, in pursuit of their own agenda.

Personal touch?

According to the Inquirer report, Aquino said his personal touch was finally paying off. “The refocused campaign has clarified our message. We intend to redouble our efforts,” he said in a text message. Talaga?

As of Jan 15, 2010, 55% of voters were not in favor of Aquino. Two months later, the number of people who disapproved of Aquino has increased by 10%,  from 55% to 66%, as shown in the dip of his voter preference scores from 44% to 34%. How's that for a refocused campaign with a personal touch?

To the first schmoe who will comment - inggit lang kayo, I say, walang naiinggit sa tanga.

Who really is on the losing side?

Lots think that losing refers to whoever loses the race. Why am I not surprised with the myopia.

Given that Noynoy's stance on charter change is lame and highly protectionist, expect more of the same - corruption, economic malaise, oligarch control of the economy - same ole sh*t.

Why settle for the sorry  policies of a loser when you can be a winner by selecting the candidate with the policies that make you win, make the economy win, and wipe out corruption by eradicating the conditions that breed it in the first place - the protectionist clauses of the Philippine constitution which has sustained the domestic oligopoly, as shown above.

Who really is on the losing end now? That's YOU and I buster, we all loose with a loser like Aquino.

Solution 'kamo? Well, this solution does not need a project plan - GO GORDON!

But for those who need a project plan, let's do a show and tell na lang, what the implications of a Gordon presidency are - and the solutions Gordon brings to solve the raging issues of the day. Why settle for a limited solution when you can address the system-wide gap which are felt in all industrial sectors (for example the green energy sector) - remove the protectionist stranglehold of the oligarchs so that Filipinos have the freedom to pursue equity arrangements that work - those that generate jobs, provide roofs on the head, food on the table, send our children to school - and keep our families intact.

Winning in this case, does not mean going with the most "winnable" candidate - it means, going for the candidate that can deliver a "win" for the family, community, and country - GO GORDON.

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The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. — Alvin Toffler

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