The Philippine Online Chronicles

There is a gathering storm. The signs are all around us. The massacre that occurred in Maguindanao was a loud thunderous applause of impunity, and like 9/11, it raped our nation’s soul. It was followed by the sharp bolt of lighting that was Arroyo gunning for a Congressional seat in spite of history, and disregarding all sense of propriety. Then, with a little help from friends, the president’s history redefining declaration of Martial Law and finally, there was that blitz against governors allied with the political opposition.

You know the players in the field.

On one end of the spectrum, there is the massive Yellow Army with its promise of rebirth and its search for redemption. This group is a microcosm of the decent Filipino community. If there was ever an avatar of the ideal Filipino, they’re it. It is composed of an older generation, a guard that fought a dictator, got a widow and a housewife into the palace. They are largely heavy on faith, of history, and moral character armed by rational intelligence, with a compass that steers them on the right path. Well, most of the time anyway. The younger generation that comprise this crew are bright with hope and a determination to set things right.

Right beside them are the Transformers. The motley crew of Richard Gordon and Bayani Fernando is a small, ragtag band. They are heavy on success and willpower, but light on resources and fame. They are the best executives that government salary could buy. They’re operators who can whip a city, an agency, into shape. They’re great in a crisis. They’re people who, when you want things done right, you send them with instructions, let them loose and leave them alone to get the job done, their own way.

The other side of battlefield is the camp of the Nationalistas. The billionaire Manny Villar leads this crowd and brands himself as a rags to riches story. While their name may seem a representation of a pro-country stance, they are heavy on cynicism flying on the banner and color of avarice. Waiting beside them is Erap Estrada and his well-worn mantra, “for the poor.” His force was once legion but he is now a joke in a circus of jokers. He is a lumbering dinosaur that dances in the field. Villar’s Nationalista’s and Estrada’s Force of the Poor, have so much in common, philosophically, you could hardly differentiate them.

Bringing up the rear is Gibo Teodoro. Running on massive and expert machine, Teodoro’s Lakas-Kampi (loosely translated in English to be, ‘Strong Ally’ but I’d like to think that the English translation ought to be, ‘Strong Allied Force’) remains formidable.  Its extensive network stretches from top to bottom, and across towns and cities.

There are minor players in this field of battle. The CBCP and other religious groups stand on one side. Though there is no Catholic vote, yet, this behemoth, they hold sway with the upper echelons of society.

The Communist Left has a small part to play. Yes, a minor role, a “House Minor,” at best but they are loud and vocal.

What all these players have in common is their own vested interest. How then to best judge which of those interest coincide with what the nation so desperately require? How then best to see how each of these players advanced on the battlefield?

The Yellow Army fights like it has always fought. For all the righteousness that fuels it, will it be enough to win tomorrow? Though I am for the Credo, why does it often seem like this Army continues to underestimate Arroyo’s capacity for recklessness and dark imagination?

When Gloria Macapagal Arroyo made her first push for the Congressional seat in the second district of Pampanga, why did the opposition give Mrs. Arroyo quarter? That was a huge, strategic and tactical blunder. The political opposition gave Mrs. Arroyo the confidence that she could still get what she wants. The fatal mistake might be assuming that winning in surveys today maybe enough to catapult the Yellow Army to victory in May 2010, but could it be that that is Arroyo’s trap?

The house seat move is clearly a setup to keep her in a position of strength post election day. Is it still surprising the lengths Arroyo and her ilk go through, to maintain power? If only the skill by which her political expertise is flexed could be channeled in another way, it could be called, admirable.

Like an X-Wing flying into the Death Star’s trench to fire into a hole the size of a womprat, will Risa Hontiveros’ last ditched effort to disqualify Arroyo from running for Congress prove successful?

Though I believe in Credo and Platform and when you look at the data, they all point to the fact that that is the best chance for tomorrow. It may be easier said than done, but the Yellow Army needs to step up, needs to move faster, act more decisive. The Yellow Army needs a Wartime Consigliere schooled in a War of Assassins because that’s what we have here. Make no mistake that this is a War of Assassins.

It isn’t just the Yellow Army. Most people, I suppose, you could characterize as decent. They cannot fathom the lengths Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her ilk go to, just to advance their agenda.

“So while my gut reaction is to cheer on the crushing of the Ampatuans and their ilk by whatever means, however extreme, my instincts also tell me to be stay vigilant regarding GMA’s moves and intentions.” The Warrior Lawyer wrote. He added, “You get the sense that she’s not doing all of these merely to ensure that justice is done.”

I think the Warrior Lawyer’s sentiment is what most people think. They want justice for those murdered and at the same time, can’t bear the thought that it is Arroyo wielding the sword of justice.

But what is justice in this case?

Look at the board, Arroyo is a vicious veteran and her machine, is a powerful force. The objective is to stay in a position of power, in a position of strength. Because that’s the nature of the beast, that’s who she and her ilk are: power and wealth for the sake of power and wealth above all else. That’s it. That’s the be all and end all of their world. Whether or not consciously or unconsciously they think of it, that’s how their aristocratic mind works.

The choice of Teodoro was a masterful stroke, while being classic Arroyo: Throw it, if the plan works, great, if not, it would have done something to advance the cause.

Gibo is the perfect knight: smart, intelligent, a leader and clearly someone who knows his stuff. He is a field marshal, thrown into the field to block, thwart, and stall while Arroyo’s main plan is to keep moving, keep mobile and headed for a post election day scenario.

The classic Arroyo tactic isn’t so much that she thinks things brilliantly. She and her ilk are just more aggressive than anyone else. They discard propriety and history. They don’t have what Filipinos call, “hiya.” They act based on their plans, and if they fail, they continue on.

Like I said, it could be admirable if used right.

Going back to justice for the victims of the carnage in Maguindanao, and why I think Martial Law in this case is unacceptable and doesn’t really advance the cause of justice.

We have to ask ourselves the question, “what created the warlords in the first place?”

It isn’t just in Ampatuanville, but in other spots in the Philippines? I am tempted to write that, “Government cannot project the laws of the land in those far-flung areas”.

That’s not exactly true is it?

Government either chooses not to project the laws of the land or can’t. It doesn’t matter if it is in Mindanao or in Pampanga, which is just a few hundred kilometers from the Palace.

How many supposed gambling lords are there in Pampanga? If anecdotal stories are to be believed, aren’t they also armed to the teeth like all Warlords are? And that’s just a slice, which is easier to imagine.

From North to South there are warlords of varying degrees. Private Armies exist and mask as personal security. Can government project law and order in every part of the country?

Take a look at Maguindanao post-Massacre. Data clearly tells us that the Ampatuans and their citizen army were “sanctioned” by Government to keep the peace, to hold territory in areas, where obviously Manila’s influence is far weaker. Whatever activities those Warlords do, Manila turns a blind eye on.

For all the indignation our people say they feel towards the atrocities of Maguindanao, why has there not been a call to boycott known businesses where Warlords from North or South of every stripe and from every province launder their money?

Isn’t it an open secret who owns what in the Philippines and don’t those Warlords have malls, and businesses where their dirty money are laundered?

Perhaps the best explanation for this is @mlq3’s coping mechanisms. He wrote:

There’s a term for the Philippines’ situation isn’t it? The Philippines in a nutshell is a failing state.

To characterize this as a failing of Arroyo, would be a mistake. This is a result of years of degradation. Arroyo merely helped moved it along, because it was convenient and it served her purpose. It is a result of a breakdown of social norms and economic collapse.

Evidence suggests that the condition on the ground does not warrant Martial Law. So why use Martial Law? The question ought to be, “why not?” Martial Law has already done its part. People think the massacre is evil enough to use all force necessary. Martial Law also hides government’s ineptitude and show that it is doing something, even if the root cause is government’s doing. And as many say, the Ampatuans could go free in a few years because of it. At the same time, it is a shot across the bow of Aquino, Villar, Estrada and Gordon saying, “hey I’m right here. I’m your real enemy. I’m no lame duck. I got teeth and you will have to pry the power from my tight grip”.

Did Arroyo lose by withdrawing Martial Law? The Martial Law move was classic Arroyo. She advances a position with clearly defined goals and is not afraid to retreat when a minimum set of objectives has already been met like this one.

The proper phrase you are looking for is, “plans within plans”.

So where do we go from here?

This is Zeitgeist.

The things that are important are still important. Nothing has changed. The work that needs to get done are still on the to do list. Like what? TG Guingona’s Budget Reform for one. The RH Bill needs to see the light of day. The nation also needs labor law reform and Congress needs to guarantee our People’s Internet rights and Freedom of Information Act.

Above all, what our people need is Institutional Reform because it is as if everything is twisted now. We need a serious crackdown on corruption, so we can fix the leaks in the system. We need to streamline our budget so the right resources get funneled into places where it does great good.

And when the courts of law are places where people could seek refuge, when police and the military are people we can trust to protect us, then maybe ordinary Filipinos who have made money abroad can come home and invest and change the State of the Filipino Nation.

So for now, Martial Law has been averted. Arroyo wins, such as it is and in the coming days, we remember and enjoy our Christmas time give-away.

In another time, in another place, the Gordon campaign would be a welcome sight. In many ways, they maybe the operators needed to fix problems in the system. Post election, if Gordon and Fernando lose that would be one year that the government can’t call upon them to serve. How sad that that team can’t be part of the Yellow Army. It seem such a waste of valuable resources, like chopping an arm off when one most needs it.

Villar’s Nationalistas will be throwing away money because they have a lot of it. I wonder why people still believe in the same, tired and tested, “para sa masa” theme. Estrada won with it and continues to fight with that theme. It seems empty now. Hollow in the face of serious institutional issues that need to be addressed. It seems shallow amidst the stark reality that to fight poverty, our people need jobs and to create more jobs, we will need to fix the holes in the system.

The plans within plans of Arroyo are brilliant stratagems. Though her name is not on the ballot for President, she is very much the presidential contender. How easy would it be now for Aquino, Villar, Gordon to gobble up local officials for their push to the Palace now that Arroyo has flexed her muscles? Will history prove true that whomever wins the palace will take the house?

The Yellow Army is now faced with the trouble of defending more provinces with the loss of Bulacan and Isabel from their grip. The shallow foothold it has on Pampanga may be in danger. Who knows what and who else will fall victim.

There is still six months to go before the election and much more will take place.

The test for the Yellow Army is whether or not post Election Day, they will have a majority in Congress. If they cannot, it will be hard pressed to engage reform and there is much reform that needs to get done.

Note, I’ve didn’t even mention Perlas and the other similar contenders for the throne. Like it or not, however “good” their “ideas” are the complex dynamics into play make those guys insignificant.

Much rides on May 2010. If surveys are to be counted, Aquino is poised to take the Palace, and on his shoulder rides a lot of people’s hope and aspiration.

Bad enough that as a microcosm of Filipino society, the Yellow Army will undoubtedly be faced with internal strife much like the whole debacle between Osmena and Recto. They fight this on top of engaging Arroyo, Villar, and Gordon. Arroyo will fight tooth and nail. To win, the Yellow Army must be willing and ready to go to war. To win, the Yellow Army must fight together, all in or fail in the attempt to begin to reshape Philippine society.

The zeitgeist is that this is a society where good is bad, and bad is good. It is a time when most of our people are conditioned with coping mechanisms. It is a time where they believe that Elections is the only moment that they should participate in democracy.

May 2010 is shaping to be an epic battle of titans. Arroyo has plans within plans to guarantee she will fight until her day of reckoning.

This is War.

This is a War of Assassins and to the victor of the fight is he who fights the most for it. The truth is, on Election Day is not the last day of War. It is the first day of a greater conflict because that’s when the true work begins. What we will find is the typhoon struggle. What we will discover on Election Day is the beginning of Kralizec, and when that happens, will we default to our coping mechanisms or break the status quo and build our nation together?

Image from wikipedia, licensed under creative commons. Some Rights Reserved

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