The Philippine Online Chronicles

The May 2010 elections are less than six months away  and we are now shown three sets of survey results from various sources.

1. A superficial glance at the Social Weather Survey’s (SWS) third quarter report shows that Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III is leading the polls, garnering 60 percent of the respondents “votes.”  The next most popular successor was Senator Manny Villar, who was mentioned by 37 percent. Noynoy and Manny Villar were followed by former Pres. Joseph Estrada at 18 percent, Sen. Francis Escudero at 15 percent, and Sen. Mar Roxas at 12 percent.The Third Quarter of 2009 Social Weather Survey was conducted from September 18 to 21, 2009, with a sample size of 1,800 adults, for an error margin of ±2.3 percent.

2. Ibon Survey shows that Noynoy ranked first for both survey items, with a percentage of 22.6 percent in the open question and 32.2 percent in the multiple choice. Meanwhile, Senators Manuel ‘Manny’ Villar Jr and Francis ‘Chiz’ Escudero place second and third, respectively, in both survey items. Former President Joseph Estrada ranked fourth in both lists. The survey was conducted October 2 to 8 among 1,496 respondents and used used a multi-stage probability sampling scheme and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.

3.  The recent Pulse Asia Survey reveals that Noynoy is again leading the polls.  44% of Filipinos express support for Aquino's presidential bid, while in second place is Villar (19 percent). The only other possible presidential candidates to score double-digit voter preferences are Escudero (13 percent) and former President Joseph Estrada (11 percent). Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey was conducted  from October 22 to 30 among 1,800 respondents and has a +/- 2 percent error margin on the 95 percent confidence level.

As you can see, the three surveys show that Noynoy indeed leads the Filipinos’preference for President in the May 2010 elections. Pulse Asia said the most often cited reason in expressing a voting preference for a possible presidential candidate is Aquino's clean public record or “not being corrupt.” Around two in ten Filipinos (21.2 percent) are voting for a particular presidential candidate because he/she is not corrupt or is malinis – a reason cited by fewer respondents in May and August 2009 (7.1 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively).

It seems that the respondents perceive him to be clean but what is the basis? Was it because of his track record as a senator?  Or because  he is the son of the former President Cory Aquino and the clamor was high to carry on the work of his mother.    The release of  Hindi Ka Nag-iisa Ad (which came at the close of the Pulse Asia survey) turned off a few readers in my blog saying that "I was shocked to see that Noynoy Aquino had joined the domain of traditional politicians with his artista-packed infommercial on TV this evening. I cringed while watching it. He’s already leading in surveys. That obviously was not necessary."

Now the question is, does the trend towards a Noynoy preference spell doom for the other presidential candidates? I think not.  It seems voters’ reason to choose a candidate changes over each poll period.  It can even change two weeks before the elections.

In the Pulse Survey of  May 2009, the leading reason for voting was a candidate’s being helpful to others (34.0 percent) while in August 2009, the top reasons cited were a candidate’s having many accomplishments (25.3 percent) and his/her being pro-poor (20.3 percent). Currently, 14 percent are motivated to vote for a presidential candidate because of his/her many accomplishments, 12.2 percent cite a candidate’s being pro-poor, and 12 percent favor one candidate over another because he/she helps others, with 6.6 percent mentioning being helpful to overseas Filipinos workers (OFWs) in particular.

It is possible that when the official campaign period starts, the reasons for voting preference  could change. Voter Education is crucial and this is where media can help voters  discern  candidates' qualifications which is not based soley on  faith and emotions.

I am hoping that once the campaign is in full blast, the voting public checks not only the character , the personal and political background of the candidates but their platforms as well. Media attention needs to focus also on these platforms instead of the various spin or mud slinging against these presidential candidates. Let’s hear their platforms on climate change, budget reforms or their vision in improving our country.

1. What is their statement on issues to be addressed?

2. How will these issues be addressed? What are the solutions and objectives?

3. What is the rationale for choosing the solutions?

I am not saying that platforms are the sole basis for deciding your candidate. Any bright adviser can formulate platforms that are appealing to voters but will it turn into concrete action? There lies the history,  the past performance of the candidate and his principles and values as a person.

I believe voters should  choose their candidate based on leadership ability, character, values and  their vision for the country and not on the emotional appeal  or celebrity status of the candidate .

Let’s  be vigilant in  selecting our leaders.

Image Source : Pulse Asia Survey Results