The Philippine Online Chronicles

Doomsday scenarios of all forms – from the prophetic to the scientifically formulated – have become a favorite topic as 2012 dawns. For most of the Filipinos though, the New Year still means hope rather than the end of the world.

Filipinos’ New Year optimism even reached a record high of 95 percent based on the latest survey by pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS). The result is two points higher than the 93 percent who welcomed 2011 with hope. It should be noted however the the survey was done before tropical storm Sendong wrought devastation in parts of Mindanao and Visayas.

The record-high optimism however does not sit well with the ailing state of the local economy and the continued global economic slump. Serious economic challenges stare us in the face even as we look somewhere else greener. For one, the country’s growth has been on a steady slowdown since the fourth quarter of 2009. Thanks to the Aquino administration’s active tit-for-tat with the judiciary and the Arroyo camp, tell-tale signs of an economy in distress were perfectly drowned in mainstream discussions.

To give the omission of economic truth a glossy finish, President Benigno Aquino III claimed in his New Year message that the country achieved equitable development this year. “Ang kaunlaran ay natatamasa hindi lamang ng mayaman at makapangyarihan, ramdam na rin ng mas nakakarami nating kababayan ,” President Aquino said.

The President must be living in a different planet. Fifty-two percent of Filipino families or around 10.4 million continue to live in poverty based on an SWS survey conducted during the third quarter, higher than the previous quarter’s 49 percent. The number of families who claimed to be food-poor also climbed, up to 41 percent (8.2 families) in September from 36 percent (7.2 million) three months ago.

These poverty figures are expected to rise in the fourth quarter in light of the combined effects wrought by typhoon Pedring and storm Sendong. And the government knows this well, that’s why it rolled out a new methodology for appraising poverty. The new methodology ingeniously cuts the number of poor Filipinos by more than half by lowering indicators such as food costs.

On a broader the scale, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 3.2 percent during the third quarter, a steep decline from the 7.3 percent growth rate recorded during the same period last year. This is even lower by the 3.5 percent growth rate of Thailand which sustained major economic impacts from the prolonged flooding. Recently, the World Bank trimmed its growth forecast for the Philippines for 2011 to just 3.7 percent, down from its previous forecasts of 5 percent, then 4.5 percent.

Exports declined for six straight months in October to double-digit levels. Shipments plunged to 14.6 percent as demand from major economies of US, Europe and Japan continues to shrink. Export of electronics (which accounts for nearly half of the country’s exports) plunged by 36.5 percent, a critical indicator of overall manufacturing activity since domestic production is primarily export-oriented. Certainly, there is no alternative market for Philippine exports as big as the US and Europe at this point (of course China sustains its own big internal market).  Predictably, the country’s export decline could well linger up to 2012, hinting at critical production slump and massive job cuts in export processing zones.

Mainstream economists are quick to blame the Aquino administration for its underspending this year. The President’s economic managers, too, are getting it wrong as they recommended a second round of pump-priming on top of the P72 billion released as stimulus package in October. This strategy is pretty much the same as the economic stimulus package implemented by the Arroyo regime in 2009. And that is precisely the problem. President Aquino keeps on repeating what has been done and has failed yet he eagerly expects a different result. Albert Einstein calls it insanity.

Truth be told, the Aquino administration’s recycled neoliberal approach in the economy cannot steer the us clear from a major economic disaster in 2012. The government’s public-private partnership (PPP) program, even if assumed fully functional, can only do so much as to artificially increase jobs and boost construction. But it is also opening up new risk channels as it invites banks, speculators, and multilaterals to pour in risky finance and mix with taxpayer’s money. As for the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, evidences are out there confirming its failure. Recently, an audit report showed that government’s dole-outs even benefitted drug pushers, gamblers and rich families.

Indeed, 2012 should not be a year of repeating mistakes and failed policies. For the economy, it should be a year of thinking beyond dole-outs and artificial stimulus plans. We should take note: the new year is no ordinary year for the economy as impact of Europe’s debt crisis on Asian economies has yet to ripen. If euro continues its freefall, a major economic catastrophe will unfold. Too bad we only have overseas remittances – which is by the way showing signs of instability – as cushion.

Signs of economic distress are just too big to ignore. For the Palace to keep preoccupied with preparing elegant soundbytes of justice against its political enemies will do injustice to the growing ranks of Filipinos suffering in poverty.

For a change, can we also discuss social justice? Can we put genuine land reform and national industrialization on the agenda? Can we move forward to pressing concerns on food sovereignty, corporate land-grabbing and resource plunder? Can we finally tackle strategic job generation and decent wages? I bet those fed up with Malacanang’s political games would agree with me.

Stock photo from Politiko. Some rights reserved.

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