The Philippine Online Chronicles

Weather bureau Pagasa has predicted a rainy summer for the Philippines due to the continuing effect of the La Nina weather phenomenon.

La Nina refers to the cooling of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in cooler temperatures and heavy rainfall for the country.

“This means that we expect to have a rainy summer. We expect to have tropical cyclones,” said Flaviana Hilario, chief of the weather bureau’s climatology and agrometeorology division.

She added that La Nina is expected to last until May, with the peak occurring in February. Also, while there is only a “slim chance” of a tropical storm in February, Pagasa expects at least one typhoon in March, two in April and another two in May. June, the start of the rainy season, is expected to have two to three typhoons.

This is not the first time the country will be suffering the effects of a severe La Nina, Hilario said.

“In the 1998 La Niña, almost the whole country received above-normal rainfall. We had a rainy summer then [as well]."

In comparison, the country suffered a scorching El Nino, or the warming of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean, from 2009 to April 2010. 2010 was also noted by the US-based NASA as the warmest year in recorded history.

Heavy rain

Pagasa officer-in-charge Graciano Yumul Jr. has warned that heavy rains may bring about flash floods and landslides.

“The occurrence of an Ondoy-like flood is a possibility. A landslide such as in Guinsaugon is a distinct possibility,” he said, referring to the 2009 Ondoy calamity which resulted in the inundation of around 80 percent of Metro Manila, and the 2006 landslide which buried the village of Guinsaugon in St. Bernard, Southern Leyte following 10 days of non-stop rains.

The Eastern Visayas and Mindanao are currently caught in the tail end of a cold front which has brought rains since the start of the year. Floods and landslides have affected millions in over 25 provinces, with 57 reported dead as of yesterday and over a billion pesos in damage to private property, agriculture and infrastructure.

Catarman in Northern Samar received an abnormally high volume of rainfall from January 1 to January 17, at 1,214.3 millimeters, more than twice the average amount of 444.2 mm.

Borongan in Samar received 1 ,214.3 mm of rainfall during the same time period, as compared to the 597.5 mm it usually receives.

Similarly Puerto Princesa City in Palawan received 148.6 mm of rainfall, despite usually receiving only around 29.5 mm.

Pagasa weather forecaster Robert Sawi said that, “for the next five days, most parts of the country will be affected by the northeast monsoon.” He added that the skies may clear by Friday but that it will begin raining again over the weekend.